ITECH7407 Real Time Analytics - Free Samples to Students

Introduction:

The global scenarios of population, agricultural production, industrial revolution and trade and commerce (both domestic as well as international) have been changing significantly and massively over the decades, owing to phenomena of immense international significance like that of Globalization, trade liberalization and technological as well as infrastructural innovations in every field of human lives (Cavusgil et al., 2014). All these aspects have led to the development of human lives considerably, thereby having prominent impacts on the demographic trends across the globe. The low birth rates, extended life-years, inventions of cures and preventions of diseases, health care improvements and other similar aspects, across the globe has led to a visible and continuous increase in the population of the world over the years (Keinan & Clark, 2012). With the increase in the growth of the population of people across the world, several issues of immense global concern can also be seen to be cropping up, one of which being that of the demand and supply of necessary goods required for basic sustenance of human beings across the world.

Of the primary necessities for sustenance of human beings in any corner of the globe, the most crucial one is food. Over the decades, with the increase in the population, the demand for food and related consumption products have also been increasing continuously and alarmingly, which has also led to a pressure on the producers to produce more efficiently and effectively (Gerland et al., 2014). This on one hand, have been positively affected by the technological progresses and on the other hand has also been negatively affected by the loss of agricultural lands for industrial and residential accommodations, thereby indicating towards considerable dynamics in both the demand as well as the supply of these commodities of considerable importance for the sustenance of people across the globe (Valin et al., 2014).

Keeping this into consideration, the paper tries to analyze and interpret the trends in the growth of demand and supply of foods and related agricultural products, over the last few decades, across different parts of the world, thereby highlighting the extent and magnitude of problems related to demand-supply mismatch in different areas, highlighting the ones with positive and negative trends in these aspects.

Foods, both for the human beings as well as for the animals which cater to the needs of the human beings (feeds) are, mostly inelastic in demand as the consumption of food is basic human need and cannot be stopped or decreased considerably with increase in price or vice-versa. In this context, with the increase in the population of the world, over the years (the projected increase being as high as to the level of 9.7 billion by 2050, from the current period population, which is nearly 7.3 billion) and with the presence of inelastic nature of the demand for foods, the same can be seen to be increasing continuously and is expected to increase further in the coming years (Wheeler & Von Braun, 2013). This continuous increase in demand for food, makes it one of the primary challenges of the agricultural sector in all parts of the globe, to increase their production as well as cost efficiency, in a difficult situation of loss of cultivable lands to industries and residential projects. The changes in the climatic conditions across the globe (most of the same being adverse) owing to phenomena like global warming, increasing pollution and others, also add on to the level of difficulties faced by the producers to cater to the needs of the population across the globe. This in turn indicates towards the importance of studying the supply trends of the food products across the globe (Bodirsky et al., 2015). The concerned study analyses the same for foods for human beings, feeds for livestock and also the trends in production of meat, which is another crucial consumption product for people across the globe, for a period spanning from 1961 to 2013, so as to capture the dynamics in the trends of the growth of these products across different parts of the globe.  

The concerned study, with the objective of analyzing the trends and growth dynamics in the demand and supply of food, feed and meat, across the globe, over a period ranging from 1961 to 2013, uses the software, IBM Watson, for the purpose of the analysis of the same (Hoyt et al., 2016). This software has been taken into consideration, keeping into mind the ability of the same to visually and comprehensively interpret the data in the eyes of the viewers with the help of dashboard representations of the results and the findings (High, 2012).

The study relies on different reputed as well as authentic sources of information like academic articles, journals, databases and authentic statistical evidences for the purpose of collection of the relevant information to form the analytical report. The data on food, feed, various types of meat, and on the demand and supply dynamics of the same, within the time period of 1961 to 2013, has been collected from the statistical source which can be seen to be as follows:

The study intends to target the governments, the academic institutions as well as the different non-profit institutions working on the development aspects of agricultural sectors of different parts of the world. This is primarily due to the fact that the concerned study, by distribution of knowledge related to the same, aims to spread awareness among the global population as well as relevant people working on these aspects, regarding the issues related to the demand and supply crisis or mis-match of the food products across the globe, the areas having acute problems and also regarding the possible strategy formation and implementation to eradicate the problems like that of shortage of supply of these essential products in areas where the problems are more severe.

The research takes a descriptive analytical approach in place of a predictive approach. In this approach, the data collected are analyzed, based on the findings of which the assertions are drawn in general. Keeping this method into consideration, the concerned research collects data related to the trends in production and consumption of foods, feed and various kinds of meat, within the time period of 1961 to 2013 (Härdle & Simar, 2012). Using IBM Watson statistical software, the research interprets the trends observed in the production and consumption of the same, across the globe within the concerned period, thereby visually representing them with the help of dashboard representation, based on which the study further tries to recommend solutions to the problematic aspects observed in the concerned trends of production and consumption of these commodities.

Dashboards for Business Intelligence:

As discussed above, the study uses the dashboard representation to visually interpret the findings related to the trends and dynamics of food, feed and meat production as well as consumption across the growth. The method being an easily comprehensive and relevant one, especially for analysis and interpretation of large data sets, has been increasingly gaining popularity across the globe over the years (Tsoi et al., 2017). The findings of the research are interpreted in the following section.

Dashboard 1: Production and consumption of food and feed in 1961

In 1961, the total consumption of food and feed was higher in countries like United States of America, China and India. In 2013, the total consumption of food and feed is higher in these three countries especially in China. The change of production and consumption of food and feed from 1961 to 2016 is very high in China. The average production and consumption of food and feed in these 53 years is highest in China followed by India and United States of America. This, in turn indicates, that both the demand as well as the supply of food as well as feed have been impressively increasing in the three countries- China, India and the USA (West et al., 2014).

Dashboard 2: Production and consumption of food and feed in 2013

The top producer and consumer of food and feed in 1961 are – 1) USA (559347000 tons), 2) China (494539000 tons), and 3) India (309565000 tons). The top producer and consumer of food and feed in 2013 are – 1) China (3244375 tons), 2) India (1336593000 tons) and 3) United States of America (938639000 tons).

The change in production of food and feed from 1961 to 2013 are observed in – 1) China (2749836000 tons), 2) India (1027028 tons) and 3) United States of America (379292000 tons). The average production of food and feed in 53 years is highest in China (1480251210 tons) followed by United States of America (787154260 tons) and India (689606600 tons). The three countries, thus seem to be the leaders in the aspects of food and feed growth.

Dashboard 3: Production and consumption of elements (food and feed) for two years 1961 and 2013

The total production of feed in 1961 is 884314000 tons and the total production of food in 1961 is 2618297000 tons. The total production of feed in 2013 is 2608511000 tons and food in 2013 is 9752737000 tons.

The sum of change of production and consumption is higher in case of food than feed. The sum of change of feed in 53 years is 1724197000 tons and sum of change of food in 53 years is 7134440000 tons.

The average production of food and feed are almost 5.5 Million tons and 1.65 Million tons respectively in the span 1961 to 2013 irrespective of all the countries.

Dashboard 4: Production and consumption of meats for two years 1961 and 2013

For ‘Food purpose’ in 1961, Bovine meat (24844 tons) was mostly consumed followed by Mutton and Goat meat (19599 tons). For ‘Feed purpose’ in 1961, other kinds of meats (36 tons) are mostly consumed. For ‘Food purpose’ in 2013, pig-meat (112100 tons) and poultry meat (104871 tons) are mostly consumed. For ‘Feed purpose’ in 2013, other kind of meats (57 tons) are mostly consumed.   

The total production and consumption of meats (food and feed) in all the countries are observed in the following way-

• The item 2731 (Bovine Meat) in 1961- 24844 tons and in 2013- 65225 tons. The increment is observed.
• The item 2732 (Mutton & Goat Meat) in 1961- 4594 tons and in 2013- 13407 tons. The increment is observed.
• The item 2733 (Pig-meat) in 1961- 19599 tons and in 2013- 112100 tons. The increment is observed.
• The item 2734 (Poultry Meat) in 1961- 7710 tons and in 2013- 104871 tons. The increment is observed.
• The item 2735 (Other Meat) in 1961- 2244 tons and in 2013- 6880 tons. The increment is observed.

The change of production and consumption from 1961 to 2013 is arranged as –

1) Poultry meat (555,210 tons) 2) Pig-meat (547,340 tons) 3) Bovine Meat (228,140 tons) 4) Mutton and Goat Meat (50,070 tons) and 5) Other types of meat (25,200 tons).

The total production and consumption of meats in all countries is highest for item code 2734 (97161 tons), which is poultry meat, followed by 2733 (92501 tons), which is pig meat. The average production and consumption of meats in all countries is least for item code 2735, other meat (4636 tons).   

Conclusion:

From the above analysis and discussion of the findings, it can thus be concluded that over the period, ranging from 1961 to 2013, the production of food, meat and feed as well as the consumption of the same, have increased substantially. The change in the demand for the same, however, can be seen to be more prominent than the change in the production, barring a few countries like that of China, India and the United States of America, where both the trends have been impressive. However, apart from a few countries, the production of food, meat and feed has not increased proportionately to that of the consumption of the same in many countries of the world, especially the increasingly developing and highly populous Asian countries, which in turn, can be affecting the population of these countries adversely, in the near future.

Recommendation:

With the demand for food products increasing in all parts of the globe, attributing to rising population and with the agricultural sectors facing challenges of efficiency, land loss, climate change and other aspects, there remains high risk of occurrence of acute food supply shortage, especially in most of the Asian countries (apart from India and China), which in turn, needs to be addressed by implementation of more efficient and effective technologies and infrastructures, such that more food can be produced in lesser land areas with better utilization of resources and in a cost-effective manner, so as to cater to the rising population in most of these countries.

The research conducted on the trends and patterns of production and consumption of different food, feed and meat products, across the world, within 1961 and 2013, shows that even though both demand as well as supply of these products have been increasing across the globe, the increase in demand and consumption is more prominent than the increase in the supply of the same, in most parts of the globe (barring the USA, India and China). The problem can be seen to be more acute in the case of the Asian economies, where the population has been consistently increasing, owing to the considerable development of the countries. This, in turn, indicates towards the need for application of more efficient and technologically advanced as well as effective mode of production of these product, in all parts of the globe, so as to avoid any kind of supply shortages of these immensely essential products for the sustenance of human lives across the globe and also to avoid the rise in the prices of the same, owing to supply shortages, which, if occurs, can have immense negative impacts on the overall welfare of global population.

References:

Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Weindl, I., Popp, A., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2015). Global food demand scenarios for the 21st century. PLoS One, 10(11), e0139201.

Cavusgil, S. T., Knight, G., Riesenberger, J. R., Rammal, H. G., & Rose, E. L. (2014). International business. Pearson Australia.

Data.world. (2018). WorldFood Dataset. Retrieved from https://data.world/mchadhar/worldfood-dataset

Gerland, P., Raftery, A. E., Šev?íková, H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., ... & Bay, G. (2014). World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 346(6206), 234-237.

Härdle, W., & Simar, L. (2012). Applied multivariate statistical analysis.

High, R. (2012). The era of cognitive systems: An inside look at IBM Watson and how it works. IBM Corporation, Redbooks.

Hoyt, R. E., Snider, D., Thompson, C., & Mantravadi, S. (2016). IBM Watson analytics: automating visualization, descriptive, and predictive statistics. JMIR public health and surveillance, 2(2).

Keinan, A., & Clark, A. G. (2012). Recent explosive human population growth has resulted in an excess of rare genetic variants. science, 336(6082), 740-743.

Tsoi, K. K., Chan, F. C., Hirai, H. W., Leung, G. K., Kuo, Y. H., Tai, S., & Meng, H. M. (2017). Data visualization on global trends on cancer incidence an application of IBM Watson Analytics.

Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., ... & Heyhoe, E. (2014). The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics, 45(1), 51-67.

West, P. C., Gerber, J. S., Engstrom, P. M., Mueller, N. D., Brauman, K. A., Carlson, K. M., ... & Siebert, S. (2014). Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment. Science, 345(6194), 325-328.

Wheeler, T., & Von Braun, J. (2013). Climate change impacts on global food security. Science, 341(6145), 508-513.